El Nino will keep strengthening before peaking in December and could be among the strongest since at least 1950, the United Nations weather agency said on Thursday.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update that the natural climate pattern would bring higher temperatures to much of the planet, with its effects adding to those of man-made climate change.
“El Nino will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December,” the agency said. “It is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and floods in different regions.”
Record ocean temperatures forecast
The WMO said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific were forecast to rise to record levels in October to December 2026. The agency said the rise reflects a strengthening El Nino “which will drive weather patterns and impact economies, ecosystems and communities across the globe”. The forecast is based on a consensus of 13 leading national and international meteorological centres.
The figures behind the warning:
- the index of sea temperature anomalies at the heart of El Nino rose from 1.6C above normal in June to 2.5C above normal in August
- for October to December it is forecast to reach about 3.7C above normal
- that would be the highest since observations began, beating the record of 2.6C set in 2015-2016
“El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950.”
More heat to release
Saulo said El Nino does not add new heat to the planet but releases heat already stored in the ocean. “The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release,” she said.
El Nino warms surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, changing winds, pressure and rainfall around the world. It usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months, alternating with its cooler opposite, La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.
Hotter years likely to follow
The last El Nino helped make 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest, at about 1.55C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. El Nino usually peaks between November and February, but the spike in global temperatures it causes typically comes later.
The current event is already hitting some regions hard. In Central America, animals and crops are dying from drought, Dawn reported.
Why it matters
The agency’s warning points to a higher risk of droughts in some regions and floods in others over the coming months. On Thursday, as Pakistan marked National Resilience Day, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the country was among those most vulnerable to climate change despite its small share of global emissions, and called for climate resilience to be placed at the heart of national development.
This article draws on reporting by Dawn and APP.
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