Axios: Trump may strike Iran if Republicans do badly in midterms

US President Donald Trump may be more inclined to approve a large-scale military operation against Iran if Republicans do badly in next week’s midterm elections, according to a report by the Axios news site on Friday, carried by The Express Tribune. “If he feels embarrassed or disenfranchised, he will do something bold,” a US official told Axios, adding that this was the message being passed to Iranian officials, who were being told their best chance for a deal was now.

A White House official rejected the idea, telling the outlet that election results will not factor into Trump’s decisions on Iran.

Twelve hours in Tehran

The report said Qatari mediators spent more than 12 hours in Tehran on Friday, staying in regular contact with the White House, in an effort to restart direct talks between Washington and Tehran. A diplomatic source described “positive progress”, and discussions are due to continue in Doha on Saturday.

The talks have stalled over competing demands, according to one US official. Washington wants nuclear concessions as part of any return to negotiations, while Tehran says the US must first lift its naval blockade, release frozen funds and allow oil sales. Doha is urging Iran to let UN inspectors into its bombed nuclear sites in return for limited sanctions relief. Our report on Iran’s reaction to Qatar’s new seven-day draft has the earlier details.

Divisions in Washington

Axios said Trump’s circle is split. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are sceptical of any deal and favour further weakening of Iran’s leadership, while Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner back resuming talks. Our story on Vance’s letter and the Qatari mediators’ return to Tehran covers the vice president’s outreach.

Merz and Araghchi trade words

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, replied on X to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said the war had cost Europe more than €100 billion over eight months because of higher energy prices, and that Germany had an economic interest in ending it quickly. Araghchi said “red lines are a thing of the past” and that the cost to Europe was “nothing compared to the Earth-shattering blow Iran’s Powerful Armed Forces will deal against those who dare harm our people”. He accused Merz of having hailed the US-Israeli bombing of Iran when it began, saying Germany was “doing Europe’s dirty work”.

Tankers in the Strait of Hormuz

The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO) reported that a crude oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile as it left the Strait of Hormuz; the vessel’s name, the location and the condition of the crew were not given. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps navy said a fourth oil tanker had hit a mine and caught fire on Friday while trying to leave the strait by what it called an unauthorised southern route, ignoring radio warnings. It said the supertanker was carrying more than two million barrels of crude. These claims come from the Guard and have not been independently verified. Oman said it evacuated 25 crew from a commercial vessel that caught fire 1.6 nautical miles off Musandam, and airlifted an injured crew member from an Indian boat that was targeted in the strait.

Why it matters

The report puts a date on the risk: November 3. If the account is accurate, the Iranian side is being told that the window for a deal could close once the votes are counted, which is a form of pressure as much as a forecast. The White House denial and the split among Trump’s advisers show how uncertain the outcome is. For Pakistan, which is one of the mediators and depends on Gulf energy, a collapse of the talks and a new round of strikes would push oil prices higher; see our report on Brent near $117 after the tanker attack. The next signs to watch are the Doha round on Saturday, any Iranian reply to the US proposals, and the election results.

This article draws on reporting by The Express Tribune and Axios.