US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host his G20 counterparts in Atlanta, Georgia, on Friday, in talks that are expected to be fractious because of the wars in Ukraine and Iran and surging energy prices, Dawn reported, citing AFP. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is among those attending.
A meeting without a joint statement
Diplomats do not expect much. “The G20 is no longer really a forum where foreign ministers can reach agreement on a statement,” a diplomatic source told AFP. Instead of a final declaration, the source expects a chair’s summary drafted by the United States. The same source said Washington wants December’s leaders’ summit in Miami, at President Donald Trump’s Doral resort, to be “more as a demonstration of American power” and of US commitments to growth, deregulation, trade and business than a summit with grand ambitions.
The Trump administration, which is due to hand the rotating G20 chair to Britain, believes the group has strayed from its core mission. Washington says it wants to return the G20 to economic growth, arguing that security and economic prosperity are “inextricably linked”.
What the US wants to discuss
A State Department official said the talks would cover energy and supply chain challenges and ways to deal with the effect of geopolitical tensions on economic security. The official stressed energy access, which is needed for technology such as artificial intelligence, and a “shared resolve to confront urgent crises and keep critical sea lanes open to commerce without threats or tolls”.
Global energy prices have shot up since US-Israeli strikes on Iran from late February led Tehran to block the Strait of Hormuz, according to AFP. Alisha Chhangani of the Atlantic Council said Washington would probably push for agreement on what “freedom of navigation” means in and beyond Hormuz. That could meet objections from China, which dissented from wording on free navigation at an earlier meeting of finance ministers. China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, is not going to Atlanta and is sending his deputy instead.
Lavrov, Ukraine and Brazil
Lavrov, who remains under international sanctions, plans to argue against sanctions at the gathering, which will probably frustrate European ministers, Chhangani said. Rubio’s meeting with him will be watched closely because Washington is pursuing diplomacy on Ukraine and also wants Moscow’s cooperation on holding down fuel prices, a campaign issue in the midterms. Fresh talks between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington are due in November. The diplomatic source said Russia’s presence at the G20 “in no way legitimizes its actions”.
Washington has welcomed Russian officials to this year’s G20 events while excluding member South Africa, and Trump has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to Miami. He has also eased some sanctions on Moscow, while promoting a deal for Russia to sell diesel as prices rose. Brazil’s foreign minister will also be there, after the US allowed Flavio Bolsonaro to enter following his defeat in Sunday’s presidential election; read our report on Lula’s fourth-term win and Bolsonaro’s refusal to concede.
Middle East tensions in the background
AFP notes that the possibility of further escalation in the Middle East is growing, with Israel threatening to strike Iran and Trump signalling he could attack after Tuesday’s midterm elections. For the cost of the war so far, see our report on the Pentagon’s $47 billion estimate.
Why it matters
The G20 was set up to coordinate the world’s biggest economies, and its foreign ministers’ meeting is a test of whether that is still possible while two of its members’ wars dominate the agenda. A chair’s summary rather than a joint text would show the group cannot agree even on shipping lanes, which matter for oil and gas importers such as Pakistan. What to watch for is the content of that summary, whether Rubio and Lavrov meet, and whether the language on navigation in Hormuz draws a public objection from China.
This article draws on reporting by Dawn and AFP.
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