Weekly inflation rises to 12.31% as LPG and tomatoes jump

Short-term inflation in Pakistan climbed to 12.31 per cent in the week ending November 5, driven by sharp rises in LPG and fresh vegetables, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). It is the highest of the three weekly readings we have reported in recent weeks, and it extends a run of double-digit prints that Dawn says has lasted several weeks.

What the number measures

The weekly figure comes from the Sensitive Price Index (SPI), which follows 51 essential items whose prices are collected from 50 markets in 17 cities. It is a snapshot of what households pay for everyday goods, so it moves faster than the monthly consumer price index. The index rose 0.29 per cent compared with the previous week. Of the 51 items, 21 (41.18 per cent) got dearer, 10 (19.60 per cent) got cheaper and 20 (39.22 per cent) stayed the same.

The trend over the last three readings, from our own coverage: it was 11.85 per cent in the week to October 22, 11.32 per cent in the week to October 29 and is now 12.31 per cent.

The biggest movers

Week on week

Went up	Change	Went down	Change
Tomatoes	+54.18%	Petrol	-4.20%
LPG	+3.72%	Diesel	-2.97%
Potatoes	+2.07%	Gram pulse	-1.08%
Eggs	+1.17%	Bananas	-0.85%
Garlic	+1.06%	Onions	-0.82%

Firewood, salt powder, plain bread, fresh milk and curd also edged up, while powdered milk, chicken, sugar, wheat flour and moong pulse fell slightly.

Year on year

• The steepest rises are LPG (114.88 per cent), tomatoes (78.89 per cent), electricity for the first quarter (52.38 per cent), diesel (39.27 per cent), petrol (36.34 per cent), wheat flour (33.95 per cent) and chicken (31.81 per cent).
• Further down the list are chilli powder (15.55 per cent), mutton (14.54 per cent), onions (13.64 per cent), plain bread (12.35 per cent) and beef (11.06 per cent).
• Prices fell for potatoes (down 37.24 per cent), eggs (27.59 per cent), sugar (25.03 per cent), salt powder (14.09 per cent), gur (7.75 per cent), masoor pulse (7.49 per cent), moong pulse (6.79 per cent) and IRRI-6/9 rice (1.79 per cent).

Why prices are rising

Dawn’s report describes this as cost-push inflation: higher energy prices pass through to food and transport costs, and households end up paying more for the same basket. Short-term inflation has stayed in double digits for several weeks, mainly because of petrol and diesel prices. Dawn also noted that the government has not cut the petroleum levy, and that higher fuel prices indirectly help tax collection by raising the price of goods and services.

There is one hopeful sign. Oil prices have been easing for three days in a row, and petrol and diesel were already down this week, according to the bureau’s data. The report said the effect should show in the next review. We reported last week on petrol falling by Rs3.4 and diesel by Rs7.76 a litre, and on how oil fell 9 per cent after the US midterms.

Why it matters

A weekly rate of 12.31 per cent means a basket that cost Rs100 a year ago now costs about Rs112. The pressure is uneven: LPG at more than double last year’s price hurts families that cook with cylinders, while cheaper potatoes, eggs and sugar give some relief. A week of falling fuel prices has not yet reached the shops, and tomatoes, which jumped by more than half in seven days, are a reminder that fresh produce can swing sharply.

The SPI is not the same as the monthly consumer price index. The monthly figure for October was lower, as we reported in our story on inflation easing to 9.6 per cent, so the two readings measure different baskets and should not be compared directly. What to watch next is whether the fall in petrol and diesel pulls the weekly number down on November 12, whether LPG prices ease after the planned auction, and whether tomato prices settle.