Pakistan is preparing for a water shortage of around 25 per cent in the Rabi season that begins this week, the first shortfall of this size in several years, raising concerns for next year’s wheat harvest and the country’s food security.
The Indus River System Authority’s (Irsa) technical committee meets today to finalise estimates of water availability and recommend how the shortfall should be shared among the provinces. The Irsa Advisory Committee has been tentatively called for October 5 to approve the provincial shares.
Reservoirs at their lowest since 2021
The shortage stems from low carryover storage in the country’s two main reservoirs, Tarbela and Mangla. Their combined storage peaked at 11.6 million acre feet (MAF) on September 9, when Tarbela was full at its 5.8MAF capacity and Mangla had reached 5.733MAF. Both have been drawn down since, and total storage has fallen below 9.5MAF, the lowest carryover since 2021.
Last year, the Rabi season began with 13MAF in the reservoirs, about 27 per cent more than this year.
| Rabi season | Starting storage | Shortage |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 7.42MAF | 28pc |
| 2022 | 9.5MAF | 20 to 22pc |
| 2023 | 11.6MAF | Not reported |
| 2024 | 10.5MAF | 15 to 18pc |
| 2025 | 13MAF | None |
| 2026 (expected) | Below 9.5MAF | About 25pc |
Mangla has been the weaker of the two. Flows in the Jhelum River stayed low throughout the Kharif season, and later releases reduced its level further. By Sunday night, Mangla held 5.12MAF against its maximum capacity of 7.277MAF.
Total Rabi crop requirements under the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord are about 37 to 38MAF, but availability, including river flows over the next six months, is expected to be only around 21 to 22MAF.
A partly man-made shortfall
Part of the expected shortage could have been avoided, according to informed sources. They said more than 1MAF of water was released from the reservoirs during the outgoing Kharif season for political reasons within the ruling coalition, with parliamentary interventions allowing higher discharges to Sindh on the promise of later adjustments to provincial shares. Those adjustments could not be made before the season ended.
Meanwhile, around 10.33MAF of water has flowed into the sea since Kharif began on April 1, against an annual environmental requirement of about 8.2MAF.
Wheat under pressure
The shortage comes at a sensitive moment for wheat, the main Rabi crop, which is sown from October. Last season there was no water shortage, yet Pakistan still produced an estimated 27.5 million tonnes of wheat against a target of 29.7m tonnes and consumption needs of 31.9m tonnes, as farmers struggled with changes in wheat policy. The government has ordered imports of one million tonnes, including 750,000 tonnes for delivery in November.
Gram, lentils, tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard are among the other crops grown in the Rabi season, which runs from October 1 to March 31.
An old dispute returns
The shortfall is likely to revive tensions between Sindh and Punjab over how water is shared. Under the 1991 accord, provincial shares were fixed, but with shortages exceeding 10 per cent now common, Irsa has since 2002 used a three-tier formula that combines two paragraphs of the accord with historical water use from 1977 to 1982.
Under that formula, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are exempt from shortages, leaving Sindh and Punjab to absorb them. Sindh argues that it bears a disproportionate share of the shortfall, that Irsa exceeded its mandate in adopting the formula, and that Para 2 of the accord should be applied instead. Irsa has maintained for years that it cannot change the mechanism.
Why water security matters
The shortage is a reminder of how much Pakistan depends on the Indus and its tributaries, and why the country has fought so hard to defend its water rights. At the UN General Assembly last week, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned India that blocking Pakistan’s share of the Indus waters would be an act of war, after New Delhi said it was holding the Indus Waters Treaty “in abeyance”. At home, new storage such as the Diamer-Bhasha Dam, now moving into its main construction phase, is central to reducing shortfalls like this one in future.
Why it matters
Wheat is Pakistan’s staple food, and a quarter less water for the crop, on top of last season’s shortfall and imports, puts pressure on farmers, food prices and foreign exchange. How Irsa and the provinces share the shortage in the coming days will decide which regions feel it most, and whether the long-running dispute between Sindh and Punjab flares up again.
This article draws on reporting published by Dawn.
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