Pakistan could review its deployment options to restore the strategic balance in South Asia, Adviser to the National Command Authority (NCA) Lt Gen (retd) Khalid Kidwai has warned, saying India is moving towards a more prepared, potentially first-use capable nuclear posture.
“Pakistan never has and never will accept strategic imbalances to be induced in South Asia,” Kidwai said at the second Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference, hosted by the Strategic Vision Institute on Tuesday, Dawn reported.
“Pakistan will review and reconsider all options for appropriate deployments in order to restore the strategic balance and strategic stability while retaining the policy of strategic ambiguity,” he said.
The submarine at sea
Kidwai and Lt Gen (retd) Sarfraz Sattar, both former heads of the Strategic Plans Division and advisers to the NCA, cited the SIPRI Yearbook 2026 and other public information pointing to reports that India had deployed around 12 nuclear warheads on a submarine for deterrence patrols.
Kidwai said this suggested India had mated nuclear warheads with submarine-launched ballistic missiles and begun sea-based patrols. “I do not see any reason as to why an SIPRI report might be inaccurate or speculative,” he said.
“The operational reality that emerges is that India can undertake a first strike against Pakistan at zero notice,” he said, adding that a continuous at-sea deterrent further undermined the credibility of India’s No-First-Use policy.
He also questioned the lack of advance notice for Indian submarine-launched missile tests, warning it could raise the risk of miscalculation in a crisis. He recalled that during the February 2019 confrontation, India had reportedly deployed its Arihant nuclear submarine in the Indian Ocean after air strikes near Balakot, presumably with nuclear weapons aboard.
“Read and re-read” Full Spectrum Deterrence
“Pakistan reserves the right to undertake all appropriate measures to safeguard its national security and preserve strategic balance in the region under all circumstances,” Kidwai said.
“India in fact will be well advised to read and re-read Pakistan’s policy of Full Spectrum Deterrence and seriously absorb its wide ranging implications for strategic deterrence, strategic stability, and for India’s security,” he said.
Lessons of May 2025
Sattar said the May 2025 conflict showed how quickly conventional fighting between the nuclear-armed neighbours could escalate. Both sides used cruise and ballistic missiles before the ceasefire, and India deployed strategic naval assets, he said.
“It is now clear that the 2025 conflict was much more lethal in comparison to the 2019 conflict,” he said, pointing to kamikaze drones, supersonic BrahMos missiles that can carry conventional or nuclear warheads, and cyber and electronic warfare.
He listed further Indian developments that raised concern:
- Canisterised missiles on land and at sea
- MIRV capabilities, allowing one missile to carry several warheads
- Short-range tactical missiles, missile defences and hypersonic weapons
- The Cold Start doctrine and the absence of any bilateral arms control mechanism
Together, he said, these cast doubt on India’s No-First-Use declaration and signal “a shift towards more first use capable posture”.
“The future strategic stability in South Asia is placed on a perilous and worrisome course with heightened risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation, potentially leading to unintended or accidental escalation to the nuclear level,” Sattar said.
Why it matters
Coming from two former heads of the Strategic Plans Division, the warning signals that Islamabad is watching India’s sea-based weapons closely and is ready to adjust its own deterrent to keep the strategic balance in South Asia. Read our report on the text of the Makkah defence pact.
This article draws on reporting by Dawn.
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