Terrorist attacks fell 37pc in October but kidnappings rose, PICSS says

Terrorist attacks in Pakistan fell by 37 per cent in October compared with September, according to figures released on Sunday by the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), though kidnappings, mostly in Balochistan, climbed to their highest monthly level in a year. Dawn reported the findings.

The month in numbers

PICSS counted 143 terrorist attacks in October, against 226 in September. The fall reversed two months of rising violence. Attacks killed 111 people in October, compared with 260 in September, a drop of 57 per cent, and left 69 injured, down from 242, a drop of 71 per cent.

Counting both attacks and security operations, 53 security personnel, 45 civilians and five peace committee members died in October, while 169 terrorists were killed. Another 71 people were injured: 29 security personnel, 11 peace committee members and 31 civilians. Injuries from attacks, and combined injuries including security personnel, were at 12-month lows. The 169 terrorists killed was also the lowest monthly figure in the past year, which PICSS read as a fall in terrorist fatalities.

Suicide attacks fell from three in September to one in October. The October attack, a vehicle-borne bombing, caused no deaths or injuries, while September’s three killed 45 and injured 138.

Regional picture

• Balochistan: attacks fell 46 per cent, from 132 to 71. Deaths from attacks dropped 68 per cent, from 136 to 44, and injuries 41 per cent, from 63 to 37. Security operations in the province killed 79 terrorists.
• Mainland Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (without the former tribal areas): attacks fell 31 per cent, from 58 to 40, with deaths down from 90 to 38 and injuries down from 165 to 19. Operations there killed 42 terrorists.
• Former tribal areas (erstwhile FATA): a smaller decline, from 34 attacks to 30, with deaths down from 33 to 25 and 35 terrorists killed in operations.
• Punjab: two attacks, killing four people, after none in September.
• Sindh, Islamabad, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan: no attacks recorded; seven suspects were arrested in Sindh.

Kidnappings: the warning sign

PICSS recorded 88 people kidnapped in terrorist incidents in October, up 22 per cent from 72 in September and the highest in 12 months. Balochistan accounted for 70 of them, nearly 80 per cent. The think tank called this a serious concern and said the figures show that kidnapping remains a major tactic for militant groups even as attacks fall. Our report on the Interior Ministry’s figures on terrorists killed in nine months gives the government’s figures for the year.

The longer view

PICSS says the longer-term picture remains hard. In the first 10 months of 2026 it counts 1,376 terrorist attacks, which together with counterterrorism operations caused 3,902 deaths: 645 security personnel, 65 peace committee members, 595 civilians and 2,597 terrorists.

Why it matters

One month is not a trend, and PICSS itself notes that the year’s total remains heavy. Still, the October fall is the first reversal after two bad months, and it came in the two provinces that carry most of the violence. The rise in kidnappings is the part that could undo the gains: abductions in Balochistan, such as the 20 trainee police reported abducted between Kalat and Mastung this month, show that militants can still hurt people without launching big attacks. Readers should note that these are PICSS’s counts, and they can differ from government and military figures. November’s report will show whether the decline holds, particularly in Balochistan, and whether kidnappings come down.

This article draws on reporting by Dawn.