Early voting has been under way for weeks ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, when Americans will choose members of the House of Representatives and the Senate and governors across the country, Dawn reported, citing Reuters. President Donald Trump is barnstorming the country to rally his party, which is at serious risk of losing its majorities in Congress.
The numbers
| House now | Republicans 218, Democrats 214 (two vacancies) |
| Senate now | Republicans 53, Democrats 47 |
| Democrats need | a net gain of four seats in each chamber |
| Governors’ races | 36 of 50 states |
| Ad spending by Oct 12 | a record $3.8 billion |
| Trump’s approval | 32pc, an all-time low (Reuters/Ipsos, September) |
More than 100 million people are likely to vote if turnout matches 2022. The biggest spending is in Senate battlegrounds in Texas, Ohio and Michigan, according to AdImpact, and Elon Musk alone has spent about $366m to support Republicans, campaign finance records show. Ten Senate races, including Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, could decide control of the chamber.
Why it matters
Midterms are usually dangerous for the party holding the White House, and voters often use them to grade the president. Rising consumer prices could erode support for Republicans, Democrats appear more enthusiastic about voting, and there are signs that Latino voters who swung to Trump in 2024 may be returning to Democrats over the economy and immigration enforcement tactics.
A Democratic landslide is far from certain, though. Republicans could benefit from scepticism towards Democrats, a spending advantage and moderate voters’ unease over some left-wing primary winners.
History shows how big the swings can be. In 2010, under Barack Obama, Republicans gained 63 House seats in what Obama called a “shellacking”. In 2018, during Trump’s first term, Democrats gained 40 House seats.
What changes if Democrats win
If Democrats win the House, Representative Hakeem Jeffries is likely to become speaker, the first Black American in the post. He has said Democrats would investigate what he calls “unprecedented levels of corruption” in the Trump administration and focus on lowering the cost of healthcare, groceries, housing and energy. A Republican win would keep the gavel with Speaker Mike Johnson or another Republican, with priorities including more tax cuts, higher defence spending and deeper cuts to the social safety net.
Hanging over the vote is whether Trump will try to interfere in elections run by the 50 states. He has repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that US elections are rigged, and states are preparing for federal election monitors.
On the rally trail
Trump, now 80, has been holding rallies across the country, AFP reported. In Greenville, North Carolina, on Tuesday he spoke for 111 minutes, attacking opponents, repeating his false claim to have won the 2020 election, and leaving the stage to “Y.M.C.A.” as always.
Supporters said nothing would replace the events once he leaves office in January 2029, when he is constitutionally barred from another term. “The copy is never as good as the original,” said David, a 51-year-old. Patty Laronde, a retiree, said she was “hopeful with JD Vance”, the vice president widely seen as a possible 2028 candidate. AFP noted that the crowds and venues are getting smaller.
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